Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at Geek Culture HVN Regionals
decks
4
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25
14-7-4
overall winrate
64.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.6%
avg ELO +4.3 per match
expected value
56.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1432
· median 1406
· range 1225–1689
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1270
Q3 1411
1702
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 15.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.2% | +6.8 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 66.9% | +10.8 |
| Water Fractal | 11.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.3% | +8.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.1% | +2.0 |
| Water Genbu | 8.8% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.4% | -4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.7% | +9.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
